Greater White-fronted Geese — specklebellies — are the most volatile species in four years of Loess Bluffs data. The numbers swing harder and faster than any other species in the count.
Season totals: 161,525 in 2022-23. 121,901 in 2023-24. 51,330 in 2024-25. Back up to 83,244 this season. That is a 68% decline from peak to trough in two years, followed by a 62% rebound. No other species in the dataset moves this dramatically between seasons.
The single-survey peak — 49,930 on November 22, 2022 — has not been approached since. The next best counts are 38,240 in 2023-24 and 17,545 this season. The 2022-23 season was exceptional by every measure.
What makes specklebellies hard to predict is that their Loess Bluffs numbers appear to be heavily influenced by conditions far outside the refuge. White-fronted Geese winter across the Gulf Coast and central Mexico. Their staging behavior in Missouri reflects what is happening across a 1,500-mile corridor. A drought year on the Texas coast changes their distribution. A warm fall holds them north longer. These are signals the current model cannot see.
They also tend to move in large discrete flocks rather than the more continuous flow of Mallards or Canada Geese. A single flock of 20,000 specklebellies either stages at Loess or it does not — there is no gradient. That all-or-nothing behavior amplifies the count volatility.
The model's 42.1% direction accuracy on White-fronted Geese reflects this honestly. It is the species where the prediction engine has the most room to improve.
Next week: Teal season approaches. What does the historical data say about early fall at Loess Bluffs?